Lofted Cars Reveal Extreme Tornado Intensities

In a recent peer-reviewed paper, Canadian scientists quietly released some astonishing findings from their tornado research. They concluded that vehicles lofted more than 50 meters are typically hurled by EF-5 intensity winds. I'm betting you're like me when you first read that: a bit skeptical. How on earth did they reach that verdict?

I was curious too, so I dove into the 2024 study by Connell Miller and his collaborators, titled "Estimating Wind Speeds in Tornadoes Using Debris Trajectories of Large Compact Objects." What I uncovered blew me away. Today, I'll unpack their work and explain why tornadoes pack more punch than you might realize.

Why This Matters to Storm Chasers

Okay, that's intriguing. But as a chaser, why does it matter to me? Simply, it directly impacts the risks we accept. As you know, chasers are edging ever closer to tornadoes these days. Social media rewards that boldness with views. This shrinks our safety buffer, raising the odds that we'll get caught in the path. But just how severe is a direct hit from a tornado?

It's uncommon, but it does occur. Aside from the heartbreaking TWISTEX incident in 2013, folks have generally walked away unscathed. Debris is always a hazard in any tornado, sure. But the true nightmare unfolds when vehicles get rolled or lifted off the ground.

So, it appears chasers instinctively grasp that tornadoes are often survivable inside a vehicle—at least in many cases. And up to now, history seems to back that up. Is chasing not as perilous as it looks? Or are we just tempting fate? I'd argue the latter.

The Hidden Strength of Tornadoes

Recent work by Josh Wurman and others (2021) reveals that tornadoes are far more powerful than National Weather Service assessments suggest. Just over 1% of tornadoes in the records are classified as EF4 or higher (a.k.a., "violent tornadoes"). Yet Wurman and his team discovered that 20% of radar-observed tornadoes could inflict violent damage.

They also determined that half of all tornadoes boast winds exceeding 135 mph. Studies show vehicles start to flip at around that speed (Paulikas and others 2017). And lofting tends to kick in above 170 mph (EF4+ territory). If half the tornadoes out there can flip or fling your ride, it's smart to rethink our chasing strategies.

Building on the Miller Study

The research from Miller and his team only bolsters this story. Tornadoes frequently hurl cars over half a football field, which suggests that significant tornadoes often exceed 200 mph winds. What's fascinating is how this echoes Ted Fujita's—aka Mr. Tornado's—early insights. He proposed that speeds over 200 mph could loft vehicles. But Fujita's scale, and later the Enhanced Fujita scale, lacked a reliable way to link vehicle damage to wind speeds.

The challenge? Gauging wind speeds from vehicles is tricky. Numerous factors influence if a car gets airborne and how far it travels, like the vehicle's size, the tornado's scale, and the wind's direction.

Previous Approaches to Understanding Vehicle Damage

Some efforts have aimed to clarify these connections. One straightforward method is tying estimated winds from nearby damage indicators to observed vehicle impacts. For instance, if a car was parked near a demolished single-family home, you could use the home's damage wind estimate to infer what speeds affected the car.

Wind tunnel experiments have also helped correlate speeds with damage (Paulikas and others 2017). Specifically, they've tested what winds are needed for certain effects—like sliding a car a short distance, or rolling and lofting it. These findings aid in decoding the speeds required to launch vehicles. But the assumption of straight-line winds complicates getting exact figures.

A New Modeling Technique

That's where the Miller study shines. It uses computer simulations to replicate actual tornado damage. Take the EF4 tornado that struck Didsbury, Alberta, in 2023, which flung a harvester combine 90 meters. The team modeled a tornado interacting with a large object matching the combine's dimensions. By running the simulation, they pinpointed the wind speeds needed to hurl it that far.

The catch is that a model's accuracy hinges on its assumptions. Miller and his colleagues' model includes plenty, such as friction levels, lift forces, and the tornado's structure. These unknowns could undermine the outcomes. So, how to address that?

The solution: broaden the scope of each variable via the Monte Carlo method. This involves running the model hundreds of times to create a full spectrum of possibilities. The goal is to encompass the real-world wind speed in the results.

For Didsbury, they retained all simulations where the combine-like object was lofted 90 meters, then compiled the associated wind speeds to estimate the probable range behind the event.

They repeated this for damage from two other tornadoes. Shockingly, in every instance where vehicle-sized (or larger) objects were thrown more than 50 meters, the simulated winds were almost always in EF5 territory (201+ mph).

Key Limitations and Nuances

One key limitation stands out, though. The model assumes lofting stems from horizontal winds generating lift under the object—via the Bernoulli Effect, the same principle that keeps planes aloft. But tornadoes aren't limited to horizontal flows. In fact, some of the fiercest ones feature powerful upward winds (vertical components).

Might vertical winds make lofting easier? Likely yes. So, interpret these findings carefully. It's not a given that every large object flung further than the length of an Olympic swimming pool signals an EF5.

Lessons for Safer Chasing

Still, this study reinforces a vital message: chasers need to exercise more caution in the hunt. Many of us, myself included, have experienced "zero-meter" encounters—when the tornado strikes head-on. These are rarely deliberate, but they often stem from hasty choices.

Remember, storm chasing is a relatively young hobby, and it's exploding in popularity. That means we haven't witnessed every possible scenario. I worry this breeds overconfidence and a casual attitude toward safety.

Ultimately, we're each accountable for our own well-being. How you chase is your call. But if a tornado can yank a 1.9-million-pound oil derrick from the earth and roll it 70 yards, as happened in El Reno, Oklahoma in 2011, picture what it could do to your vehicle.

Stay safe out there, my friends.

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By the way, if you're interested in learning to storm chase, but don't want to spend 50+ hours on YouTube, check out my comprehensive online course, The Tornado Chaser Transformation.